Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
