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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still